Blockade Blowback: Qatar-Iran Ties After Al-Ula

Qatar has taken the first steps to effect reconciliation with its Gulf neighbours, having recently welcomed Saudi Arabia’s new ambassador to Doha. Elsewhere, reports indicate that Bahrain invited Qatar for bilateral talks to strengthen Gulf co-operation. Yet, against the backdrop of a  diplomatic freeze from 2017 to 2021, Doha found it vital to transit via Iran’s airspace and territorial waters in order to circumvent the blockade imposed by the anti-Qatar quartet (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt). Considering the Al-Ula declaration earlier this year, will there be a reversal in the warming of Qatar-Iran ties?

With the ascension of Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran and his conservative administration, will the nature of the Qatar-Iran relationship change? Undeniably, Doha’s ties to Iranian rivals such as the US  and Saudi Arabia remain of strategic value. How can Qatar sustain its “hedging” strategy? Can Doha act as a reliable intermediary in, for instance, facilitating a US-Iran breakthrough? What are the implications for regional security?